Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
